FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 18, 2026
Contact:
Robert Hirschfeld, Director of Water Policy, Prairie Rivers Network
rhirschfeld@prairierivers.org | 217-344-2371 x 205
Lisa Bralts, Communications Director, Prairie Rivers Network
lbralts@prairierivers.org | 217-417-5456
On June 11, 2026, The US Environmental Protection Agency, as co-chair of the Gulf Hypoxia Task Force, distributed a press release lauding progress in the reduction of pollution, specifically nitrogen, in the Gulf.
In response, Prairie Rivers Network offers the following statement:
“The US EPA’s Gulf Hypoxia Task Force’s recent press release regarding its surpassing of nitrogen reduction goals for 2025 is written in a celebratory tone. While this is, on its face, good news, the press release lacks important context.
“The stated goal of the Gulf Hypoxia Task Force is to reduce the size of the Gulf’s dead zone to a five year average of 1,900 square miles by 2035. However, the dead zone’s running average is currently 4,755 square miles, approximately 2.5 times the size of the goal. A progress report on the dead zone that declines to state how large the dead zone remains is not much of a progress report.
“It must also be emphasized that phosphorus levels are rising. Flow-normalized phosphorus loads reaching the Gulf are 13% higher than the 1980-96 baseline, a significant increase. Time lag from legacy phosphorus is blamed, but that framing implies inputs have already been cut and the data simply hasn’t caught up. The trend indicates that flow-normalized phosphorus is still climbing. Phosphorus pollution is worsening, not merely slowly improving; the Mississippi Basin is seeing more frequent and intense rainstorms, and it is precisely those storms that strip the most phosphorus (and nitrogen) off the land and drive it into the river. A wetter, stormier corn belt will result in larger dead zones, offsetting progress that is made on nutrient loads.
“Flow-normalized data is a weather adjusted-trend, setting aside the year-to-year influence of river flow to reveal how much of the change in loading is attributable to what is happening on the land. It can help tell us whether conservation practices are working, but it is not a measurement of how much nutrient pollution is actually reaching the Gulf, which is what drives the size of the dead zone. Read honestly, the flow-normalized numbers may be telling us that, while some progress has been made, the reduction targets themselves need to be recalculated for the climate we actually have, with a far steeper cut in nutrients required to actually achieve a 1,900 square mile dead zone.
“It is incumbent on the US EPA and partners to offer complete information regarding the continued obstacles to achieving real reduction of the size of the Gulf’s dead zone, using modern calculations designed for current-day climate conditions. While progress is worth noting, it is clear that much more needs to be done to merely meet—never mind exceed— their stated ‘voluntary, interim goals’ for nutrient reduction. This voluntary, incentive-based approach has been the federal-state model since the creation of the 2001 Action Plan, and a quarter of a century later, the dead zone shows no durable, significant decline. ”
###
At Prairie Rivers Network (PRN), we protect water, heal land, and inspire change. Using the creative power of science, law, and collective action, we protect and restore our rivers, return healthy soils and diverse wildlife to our lands, and transform how we care for the earth and for each other. PRN is the Illinois affiliate of the National Wildlife Federation. To learn more, please visit www.prairierivers.org.
